SCARCEEARTH

Yttrium

Y · Atomic Number 39

Yttrium
Yttrium metal, SMM domestic China industrial benchmark.
34.89
per kgchecked Oct 11, 2026
$1,175–1,200+/kg
Ex-China Western · no named assessment series · not comparable to domestic metal · China domestic vs. Western market spread reflects processing bottleneck and export control premium.
Price historyJan 2023 – present

Quarterly benchmarks. Trend directional — for precise historical data see source links below.

Yttrium metal, SMM domestic China industrial benchmark.

Three-Tier Price Context

China domestic oxide

~$9/kg

USGS MCS 2026 · FOB China 2025 avg · ~$9.10 by Q1 2026

China domestic metal

~$34.64/kg

SMM industrial benchmark · price card figure

Ex-China Western

$1,175–1,200+/kg

Current CIF and spot · no named assessment series · peaked >$1,500/kg spring 2026

All three figures are current and simultaneously real. They describe three different points in the same supply chain — separated oxide inside China, refined metal inside China, and licensed material reaching a buyer outside it — not three competing claims about one price.

The Western tier is the one that has moved. A $270–320/kg CIF Europe range circulated widely as a stable benchmark, but that was a November 2025 snapshot of a market that never held still: the same tier ran to roughly $1,100/kg by May 2026 and sits at $1,175–1,200+/kg now. $270–320/kg is this tier's own history, not a separate parallel market, and it is not a current price.

One caution about all three figures. They are different products at different points in the chain, assessed by different bodies on different bases: separated oxide FOB China, refined metal ex-works China, and licensed material delivered outside China. The Western tier in particular has no named assessment series behind it — the reference series for this material is Argus "Yttrium oxide 99.999% cif Europe," which is subscription-gated, and two independent prints for May 2026 differ from each other by a factor of roughly 2.6. Each figure is informative on its own terms. None of them can be divided into another to produce a spread multiple or a price gap, and this page does not attempt one.

What the Domestic Figure Is

The $34.64/kg price card figure is the SMM yttrium metal industrial benchmark for the Chinese domestic market, not an oxide quote. Separated yttrium oxide sold FOB China averaged approximately $9/kg across 2025 — up from about $6/kg in 2024 — and reached roughly $9.10/kg by the first quarter of 2026 (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026). Metal and oxide are different products at different points in the same chain, and the roughly fourfold gap between them is processing cost, not a disagreement between sources. Chinese yttrium oxide exports to the United States fell approximately 75% in 2025 following export controls. Western buyers — including aerospace manufacturers sourcing yttrium for thermal barrier coatings and laser applications — face prices and availability constraints neither domestic figure reflects.

Why the Western Tier Matters

The ex-China Western tier is not a rival assessment of the Chinese domestic price and does not contradict it. It is simply what a buyer outside China pays for licensed material, and it has repriced almost continuously since the April 2025 controls took effect — from the $270–320/kg CIF range quoted in November 2025, to roughly $1,100/kg by May 2026, to $1,175–1,200+/kg today. Treating any single point on that path as a stable benchmark understates how fast this tier has moved, which is exactly the error the older CIF figure invites.

That gap is a live exposure rather than a pricing curiosity. The fifteen-year Serra Verde offtake struck with a US government-backed vehicle sets contractual price floors for dysprosium and terbium — yttrium is not covered. So the single most credible near-term non-Chinese yttrium source carries no floor on an element central to what it produces. The size of that exposure is unquantified here, and deliberately so, on two counts. The Western price leg has no settled assessment series, so sizing the exposure against either candidate figure would put a number on it the underlying pricing cannot support. And the element's share of the project's value is not a company-disclosed figure: the only price assumption in USA Rare Earth's SEC-filed investor materials is a blended TREO basket average applied to aggregate production, with no per-element price for yttrium or anything else, so the element-level revenue splits circulating in third-party analysis cannot be verified and are not repeated here. What can be said on the record is a supply-share claim rather than a price-share one: Serra Verde is projected to supply roughly 92% of non-China yttrium oxide by the end of 2027, against 58% of dysprosium and 39% of terbium. That is the scale of the dependency, and which price the uncovered element realizes is decided by access conditions rather than by the mine.

Listed as critical byUSGSDoEDoDEU CRMAustraliaJapan

What Is Yttrium

Yttrium is element 39 — not technically a rare earth element in the strict chemical sense, but classified alongside the rare earths in virtually every supply chain policy framework because it occurs in the same ore deposits, is processed through the same facilities, and faces the same concentration risks. Wherever the rare earth problem exists, yttrium is part of it.

Its industrial functions are more varied than most rare earths, which makes it harder to summarize with a single sentence — and easier to underestimate. Yttrium does several distinct things across several distinct industries, and it is essential in each of them.

The first function is structural. Yttrium is the stabilizing element in YSZ — yttria-stabilized zirconia (zirconium dioxide that has been doped with yttrium oxide to prevent it from cracking as it heats and cools, producing a ceramic that can withstand temperatures above 1,000°C without mechanical failure). YSZ is the thermal barrier coating (a ceramic layer sprayed onto the interior of jet engine turbine blades to insulate the underlying metal from combustion temperatures that would otherwise melt it) used in every high-performance gas turbine engine — commercial aviation, military aircraft, and the industrial gas turbines increasingly being deployed as behind-the-meter power for data centers and defense installations. Without YSZ, the turbine blade fails at temperature. Without yttrium, there is no YSZ.

The second function is optical. Yttrium is the host material for YAG — yttrium aluminum garnet (a synthetic crystal lattice that, when doped with rare earth elements, produces the specific wavelengths of light required by industrial and military laser systems). YAG lasers (solid-state lasers using a yttrium aluminum garnet crystal as the gain medium) are used in precision manufacturing, medical surgery, rangefinding, targeting, and — in their most militarily relevant form — directed-energy weapons and laser designators for guided munitions. The laser in the targeting pod of a fighter aircraft is almost certainly YAG-based. The laser used to guide a precision munition to its target in most Western weapons systems is almost certainly YAG-based.

The third function is radiological. Yttrium-90 (Y-90, a radioactive isotope of yttrium) is the active agent in selective internal radiation therapy — a cancer treatment that delivers targeted radiation to liver tumors by embedding Y-90 microspheres directly in the tumor's blood supply, concentrating lethal doses at the site while sparing surrounding tissue. Y-90 therapy is a front-line treatment for inoperable liver cancer in major oncology centers globally. The yttrium-90 isotope is produced from yttrium-89 — which is yttrium ore.

The fourth function is electronic. Yttrium is a component of the red phosphors (light-emitting compounds that convert UV or blue light into red wavelengths) in LEDs, displays, and fluorescent lighting.

What these four functions share is that each one sits at a physical floor that is difficult to engineer around. The turbine blade needs YSZ. The precision laser needs YAG. The Y-90 therapy needs yttrium-89. Yttrium is not one critical material — it is four, occupying four separate physical floors simultaneously.

In Short

Yttrium stops jet engine turbine blades from melting. It is the crystal inside precision military lasers. It is the active agent in a front-line cancer therapy. And China controls 99% of global refining. Those four sentences are why this mineral is on this list.

Why the Supply Picture Looks Deceptively Simple

Yttrium has a geological problem that runs in the opposite direction from most rare earths — and makes its supply situation uniquely deceptive.

Yttrium is not particularly scarce in the earth's crust. It occurs in concentrations comparable to cobalt and more abundant than tin. The geological abundance argument is sometimes made to suggest that yttrium supply constraints are temporary or solvable at relatively modest cost. That argument misunderstands where the constraint actually sits.

The constraint is not in the ground. It is in the processing.

Yttrium occurs across a wide range of deposit types — carbonatite complexes, monazite-bearing beach sands, ionic clay deposits, and as a component of bastnasite ore. The problem is that recovering yttrium from any of these deposit types at commercial scale requires rare earth separation and refining infrastructure that has been almost entirely built in China over the past three decades. The ore is in multiple countries. The refinery is in one.

China's share of global yttrium refining is approximately 99% (Rare Earth Exchanges, June 3, 2026). That figure is not driven by geological monopoly — it is driven by industrial policy. China built the processing infrastructure. Everyone else did not. The result is that yttrium ore from Australia, the United States, Brazil, or Canada ultimately flows to Chinese refineries for separation, or it does not get processed at all.

The April 2025 export licensing regime applied to yttrium alongside dysprosium, terbium, and other rare earth elements — imposing government approval requirements on every cross-border shipment. For yttrium, the effect was immediate and visible in the price data in a way that was more dramatic than almost any other mineral on this site.

Before the controls: yttrium oxide traded at approximately $6–8 per kilogram internationally — barely above the Chinese domestic price. The material was abundant, the price was low, and the processing concentration was invisible because it had never been activated as a weapon.

After the controls: the price split emerged first, then began closing from the domestic side. Chinese domestic yttrium oxide initially held near $7 per kilogram even as export licensing took effect. International buyers — who needed yttrium but had no access to Chinese domestic markets and no alternative refinery to turn to — began competing for the thin trickle of export-licensed material. Ex-China prices reached $270–320 per kilogram by November 2025, roughly $1,100 per kilogram by May 2026, and $1,175–1,200+ per kilogram as of August 2026, with peak quotes for urgent or specification-critical supply exceeding $1,500 per kilogram in spring 2026 (Rare Earth Exchanges, June 3, 2026; Mining.com, November 2025).

Domestic pricing did not stay flat for long. By August 2026, the SMM domestic metal benchmark had risen to $34.64 per kilogram — still far below the international range, and a substantial rise over the control period. The pre-controls ~$7 figure is not confidently assignable to either the metal or the oxide series, so it is not treated here as the same series measured earlier and no multiple is drawn between the two. What the domestic move does establish is that the licensing regime is now tightening the domestic market as well, not simply routing supply away from it.

At the widest point, the difference between what a buyer inside China paid and what an international buyer paid was of a different order of magnitude entirely — driven by nothing except which side of the export license border the buyer sat on. That distance has narrowed from its extreme but remains very large. This page does not express it as a multiple: the domestic and international figures are different product forms assessed on different bases, and the international leg has no settled assessment series, so any ratio between them would be arithmetic performed on figures that cannot carry it. What can be said is directional and it is not in doubt — the narrowing that appeared to be underway in late 2025 did not hold, because the Western tier resumed climbing through 2026 rather than settling.

The geological abundance of yttrium makes the supply story look simple. The processing concentration makes it anything but.

In Short

Yttrium is not rare in the ground. It is rare in the refinery. China built the refinery. Nobody else did. When China's export controls activated the processing monopoly as a tool, the ex-China price went from $6–8 per kilogram to over $1,500 at peak and sits at $1,175–1,200+ today — while the domestic metal benchmark inside China now sits at $34.64 and separated oxide inside China still sells near $9. The abundance in the ground means nothing if you cannot process what you mine, and the controls are now visible on both sides of the border, not just one.

The Divergence — $35 Domestic Metal vs $1,175–1,200+ Ex-China

The yttrium price split is one of the clearest export-control-driven divergences tracked on this site. It is not ranked against the other minerals here, because ranking splits means comparing multiples, and yttrium's international leg has no settled assessment series to build one from. Understanding what the split means requires separating what it shows from what it does not show.

What it shows: China's April 2025 export licensing regime created two separate markets for the same material — and, more recently, has begun moving both of them. In the domestic Chinese market, the benchmark traded near $7 per kilogram for the first year of the control period, then climbed to $34.64 per kilogram by August 2026 on the SMM metal series — the price Chinese manufacturers of YSZ coatings, YAG crystals, phosphors, and Y-90 precursors now pay for their yttrium. Separated oxide sold FOB China sits lower still, around $9.10 per kilogram as of the first quarter of 2026. Even at $34.64, the domestic metal benchmark remains far below the ex-China range, because Chinese producers are not subject to the export licensing friction that constrains external supply — but it is no longer flat.

In the international market, buyers without access to Chinese domestic supply competed for the limited volume of yttrium oxide that cleared the export licensing process. Prices rose from $6–8 per kilogram pre-controls to $270–320 per kilogram by November 2025, and then kept going: roughly $1,100 per kilogram by May 2026 and $1,175–1,200+ per kilogram as of August 2026. Peak quotes — for supply offered to buyers with urgent or defense-specification requirements — exceeded $1,500 per kilogram in spring 2026.

The gap between domestic and ex-China prices compressed from its widest point and then partly reopened. The two sides are stated here as levels rather than as a ratio — $34.64 domestic metal against $1,175–1,200+ ex-China — because they are different product forms and the ex-China leg has no named assessment series, which is not a basis a multiple can rest on. The direction is what matters and it is clear: the domestic side has risen, which is the export licensing regime's cost showing up inside China as well as outside it, but the Western side has risen faster, which is why the gap did not keep closing.

What the price split does not show: it does not show that the $1,500 per kilogram peak was the equilibrium price, or that all buyers paid that figure. The $270–320 per kilogram CIF range once served that purpose, but it is a November 2025 reading and no longer describes the market — the representative level for industrial buyers who can plan ahead and secure licensed supply is now $1,175–1,200+ per kilogram. The spring 2026 peak quotes above $1,500 reflect acute spot conditions rather than the standing level. Both are real. Neither is the full picture.

What the price split does show clearly: the export licensing regime has bifurcated a market that was previously integrated, and the bifurcation is not static. Domestic Chinese manufacturers hold a substantial input-cost advantage over their ex-China competitors, and it has widened over the past year despite domestic prices having risen, because the Western tier rose considerably more. That advantage is not quantified here as a per-kilogram figure: subtracting a domestic metal benchmark from an international quote with no named assessment series produces a number more precise than the inputs justify. For applications where yttrium is a meaningful input cost, the structural disadvantage facing manufacturers outside China persists and is not currently narrowing.

In Short

Three prices, all current, all real: about $9 for separated oxide inside China, $34.64 for domestic metal, and $1,175–1,200+ for anything a Western buyer can actually get. We do not turn those into a single multiple, because they are different products priced on different bases and the Western figure has no named assessment series behind it — a ratio would look precise without being so. The gap stopped closing because the Western price kept climbing; $270–320 was where that tier sat in November 2025, not where it sits today. Chinese manufacturers still pay a small fraction of what their competitors pay.

The June 15, 2026 Mineral Resources Law Connection

Yttrium sits on the dynamic list — and that is a different kind of risk from the April 2025 export licensing regime.

China's June 15, 2026 Mineral Resources Law introduced a 79-article regulatory framework that, among other provisions, created a dynamic list of strategic minerals subject to export controls with adjustment authority that does not require a fixed review cycle. The list can be updated based on economic importance, national security considerations, domestic supply requirements, and supply chain resilience assessments. Additions to the dynamic list require approximately 14 days notice.

Yttrium was already subject to the April 2025 export licensing regime before June 15. The significance of the dynamic list for yttrium is not that it adds a new restriction — the export licenses were already in place. The significance is what the dynamic list architecture means for compliance planning.

A compliance program built around a known list of restricted minerals can prepare for those minerals. It can stockpile, find alternatives, qualify substitute materials, or build supply chain workarounds. A compliance program built around a list that can add materials with 14 days notice cannot prepare in the same way. The uncertainty itself is the constraint.

For yttrium specifically: the April 2025 regime already demonstrated what activation looks like — a $6–8 material became a $270–320 material internationally within months, and has kept climbing since — roughly $1,100 by May 2026 and $1,175–1,200+ today, with peak quotes briefly exceeding $1,500 along the way. The domestic Chinese price has moved too, from roughly $7 to $34.64 on the metal benchmark — evidence that a licensing regime's effects don't necessarily stay contained to the export side of the border. The dynamic list architecture means that any mineral not yet restricted faces the same potential, on either side of whatever border China chooses to enforce.

The DFARS 252.225-7052 connection runs through the turbine blade. YSZ thermal barrier coatings on jet engine components are supply chain inputs for defense procurement. A defense contractor building or maintaining a gas turbine engine under a US defense contract needs YSZ-coated components. Those components require yttrium. The dynamic list adds further exposure: if additional yttrium end-use categories or processing steps are added to the restricted list, the compliance problem deepens further with 14 days notice.

In Short

Yttrium was already restricted under the April 2025 export controls. The June 15, 2026 Mineral Resources Law adds a dynamic list that can restrict additional minerals or tighten existing restrictions with 14 days notice. The yttrium price split — from a $6–8 baseline to $1,175–1,200+ ex-China today, with domestic metal pricing itself climbing from $7 to $34.64 — is the template for what that mechanism does on both sides of the border. The dynamic list is the architecture that can apply the same pressure to any other mineral on two weeks notice.

Who Is Building Western Yttrium Supply

The honest answer is: almost nobody, at any meaningful scale.

Lynas Rare Earths operates the Mount Weld mine in Western Australia — one of the highest-grade rare earth deposits in the world — and the LAMP processing facility in Malaysia. Mount Weld contains yttrium as a co-product of light rare earth production. Lynas is in principle positioned to become a source of non-Chinese yttrium, and its processing operations in Malaysia put it outside the Chinese refinery network. But Lynas's commercial focus has been on neodymium, praseodymium, and heavy rare earths for the magnet supply chain. Yttrium from Mount Weld represents a recoverable co-product, but it is not the headline product of Lynas's commercial development strategy.

Beyond Lynas, the field is thin. The rare earth projects in active development — Energy Fuels' White Mesa Mill, USA Rare Earth's transatlantic architecture, NEO Performance Materials' Silmet plant — are focused on neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium for the magnet supply chain. Yttrium recovery is a potential co-product in some of these flowsheets, but none has announced commercial yttrium production at meaningful scale on a near-term timeline.

The YSZ coating supply chain — the jet engine application — is concentrated in the same way the yttrium supply chain is concentrated. The coating companies that apply YSZ thermal barrier coatings to turbine blades source yttrium oxide from whatever supply is available. Currently that means Chinese-refined yttrium oxide or the thin ex-China market trading at $1,175–1,200+ per kilogram. There is no Western yttrium oxide producer of consequence operating today.

The gap between the critical classification and the supply chain investment is the most important thing this section can say. Yttrium has been on the USGS critical minerals list. It has been on the EU Critical Raw Materials list. It has been flagged in DoD supply chain assessments. And the Western yttrium refining capacity is approximately 1% of global supply.

In Short

Almost nobody is building non-Chinese yttrium supply at scale. Lynas has the ore and the processing infrastructure to potentially produce yttrium as a co-product, but yttrium is not its commercial priority. The rest of the field is thin. The critical classification exists. The investment to match it does not. China refines 99%. That number has not meaningfully changed despite a decade of critical minerals policy.

Why It Belongs on This List — The Physical Floor

The ScarceEarth framework for including a mineral rests on one question: does this material sit at the physical floor of a system that cannot function without it?

Yttrium sits at four simultaneously.

The first floor is aerospace and defense propulsion. YSZ thermal barrier coatings are not an optional upgrade to jet engine turbine blades — they are the engineering solution that allows the turbine inlet temperature to exceed the melting point of the underlying metal without catastrophic failure. Remove the YSZ and the turbine blade fails at operating temperature. Remove the yttrium and there is no YSZ. Every military aircraft engine, every commercial aviation engine, every industrial gas turbine used for power generation depends on this material.

The second floor is precision weapons and targeting. YAG laser systems are the optical backbone of a significant portion of Western precision-guided munitions. Rangefinders, designators, targeting pods, and directed-energy systems use YAG crystals. The YAG crystal needs yttrium. The yttrium comes from Chinese refineries.

The third floor is cancer treatment. Yttrium-90 selective internal radiation therapy is a front-line treatment for inoperable liver cancer — not a niche or experimental treatment, but a standard-of-care option in major oncology centers globally.

The fourth floor is the infrastructure floor emerging from data center power demands. Gas turbines — including aircraft-derivative gas turbines being deployed as behind-the-meter power solutions for AI data centers and defense installations — use YSZ-coated turbine blades. The AI buildout's power requirements are being partially met by the same engine technology that requires yttrium. The physical floor of digital infrastructure runs through jet engine materials science.

The price divergence is the physical floor made visible as a number. About $9 for separated oxide inside China. $34.64 for domestic metal. $1,175–1,200+ ex-China, after a peak above $1,500. That is not a pricing anomaly. It is a measurement of what the physical floor is worth to buyers who need it and have no alternative.

The deceptive abundance in the ground makes yttrium different from terbium or dysprosium, where the scarcity is geological as well as industrial. With yttrium, the scarcity is entirely industrial — it sits in the refinery, not the mine. That makes it potentially more addressable over time. It also makes it entirely dependent on a political decision that has already been made: China built the refinery, and the West did not.

In Short

Four separate systems cannot function without yttrium. Jet engines. Precision weapons. Cancer therapy. Data center power turbines. The scarcity is not geological — the material is in the ground in many places. The scarcity is industrial — 99% of refining is in one country. China activated that industrial concentration as a trade tool in April 2025. The domestic metal price has since climbed from $7 to $34.64. The ex-China price reached over $1,500 at peak and stands at $1,175–1,200+ today. The physical floor is visible in the number, on both sides of the border.

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Supply Concentration

Where this mineral is produced and how concentrated that production is. Concentration drives geopolitical risk — the fewer countries that produce a mineral, the more leverage any one of them has over global supply.

China99%
Other1%
Refining share

Refining concentration — not geological. Yttrium occurs in many deposit types globally, but processing infrastructure is ~99% China-based. No commercial-scale Western alternative. The ore is distributed; the refinery is not.

Connected Companies

Companies with direct operational exposure to the yttrium supply chain.

Lynas Rare Earths

ASX: LYC / OTC: LYSDY

Operates Mount Weld mine in Western Australia — one of the world's highest-grade rare earth deposits, which contains yttrium as a co-product. Processing at LAMP facility in Malaysia. Lynas is in principle the most credible near-term source of non-Chinese yttrium, but its commercial priority has been neodymium and heavy rare earths for the magnet supply chain. Yttrium is a recoverable co-product, not a headline commercial product.

Serra Verde

Private — Brazil

Developing the Pela Ema ionic clay deposit in Goiás state, Brazil — one of the few non-Chinese deposits with meaningful yttrium content, projected to supply roughly 92% of non-China yttrium oxide by the end of 2027. Serra Verde has agreed a fifteen-year offtake with a US government-backed special purpose vehicle for four magnetic rare earths — yttrium was not included in that agreement, leaving the yttrium supply chain gap unresolved. The most credible near-term non-Chinese yttrium source identified in the Columbia CGEP June 2026 analysis. On April 20, 2026, USA Rare Earth announced a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of Serra Verde for approximately $2.8 billion, expected to close in Q3 2026 — the transaction is not confirmed closed as of this review, and Serra Verde is treated here as a standalone entity until it is.

Energy Fuels

NYSE: UUUU

White Mesa Mill in Utah processes monazite — a rare earth mineral that contains yttrium alongside other rare earths. Yttrium recovery from the White Mesa flowsheet is theoretically possible as a co-product. No commercial yttrium production announced. Flagged for monitoring as the facility's separation capabilities develop.

Connected companies are included for informational context only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Conduct your own due diligence.

The Bottom Line

Yttrium is the mineral where geological abundance and processing concentration pull in opposite directions — and where the processing concentration wins.

The ore is in the ground in many places. The refinery is in one country. China built the processing infrastructure over three decades. Western governments classified yttrium as critical, published risk assessments, and largely moved on. The refinery gap did not close.

In April 2025, China activated what it had built. Export licenses were required for every yttrium shipment. The domestic price held near $7 per kilogram initially, while the ex-China price rose to $270–320 per kilogram by November 2025 and on to $1,175–1,200+ per kilogram by August 2026, with peak quotes hitting over $1,500 along the way — one of the widest price splits of any mineral on this site. But the domestic price did not stay flat either. By August 2026 the metal benchmark had climbed to $34.64 per kilogram — evidence the licensing regime's cost is now showing up inside China's own market, not just at its border.

The applications that need yttrium — jet engine turbine blades, precision laser systems, cancer therapy, data center power turbines — cannot easily substitute. The turbine blade does not stop needing YSZ because the price went up. The laser designator does not stop needing YAG because the export license is slow. The physical requirement is the physical requirement regardless of the price.

The June 15, 2026 Mineral Resources Law established the dynamic list — the mechanism by which China can tighten existing controls or restrict new materials with 14 days notice. For yttrium, the April 2025 regime already demonstrated what activation looks like. The dynamic list is the architecture that can apply the same template more broadly and more quickly.

The geological abundance is real. It makes the situation more fixable than terbium or dysprosium over a long enough horizon. But the DFARS clock does not run on a geological horizon. It runs to January 1, 2027. And on that timeline, the refinery is where it is.

In Short

Yttrium is abundant in the ground and scarce in the refinery. China built the refinery. The export controls showed what that means in practice: a domestic metal benchmark that has climbed from $7 to $34.64, and an ex-China price that reached over $1,500 at peak and stands at $1,175–1,200+ today. Jet engines, precision weapons, cancer therapy, and data center turbines all need it. None of them have a China-free supply chain at scale. The refinery is not moving — but the price on both sides of it is.

Pricing data: Yttrium metal, SMM domestic China industrial benchmark, $34.64/kg, updated August 2026. China domestic separated oxide, FOB China: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (~$9/kg 2025 average, up from ~$6/kg in 2024; ~$9.10/kg by Q1 2026). Ex-China Western range $1,175–1,200+/kg as of August 2026; the $270–320/kg CIF Europe range is a November 2025 historical reading, not a current price. Peak quotes Mining.com, November 2025; Rare Earth Exchanges, June 3, 2026. Supply concentration: Rare Earth Exchanges, June 3, 2026. Classification: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026; EU Critical Raw Materials Act 2023; DoD critical materials assessments. As of August 2026.

The Chokepoint publishes investment research connecting physical reality to financial implication. williamdavid.substack.com